Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. They composes two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
